Jun 27 2014
Obama Arming Syrian Rebels – Another US Debacle – a28

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“Silence in the face of evil is itself evil. God will not hold usguiltless. Not to speak is to speak. Not to act is to act”.
Dietrich Bonhoeffer
“Patriotism means standing by your country. It does not meanstanding by your President or any other public official.” Teddy Roosevelt
“When the people fear their government, there is tyranny.
Whenthe government fears the people, there is liberty.” Thomas Jefferson

In the Wall Street Journal today, 27 June 2014, Obama announced that he
was going to send arms to Syrian Rebels. Let us look at some facts to see if
this makes sense.  Some Wikipedia Facts sprinkled with my facts for the Context of this move are reviewed  below:

Nation of Syria:

  • Form of government – a Kingship with Assad as king. By definition, this is a
    dictatorship. Historically, we have supported Syria.  Civil War background -
    *   Ba’ath Government (Assad) took power in 1963;
    *  The Sunni rebels are those seeking to get rid of the government;
    *  Clearly a civil war

    • Assad is clearly the legal ruler;
    • US should have no interest. Syria is an independent sovereign nation.
  •   Uprising started with protests in 2011. Syrian Army deployed to put down the
    protests. It developed into an armed rebellion. By the time of the 2012 Benghazi
    attack, it appears as if the Americana were supplying weapons to these rebels.
  • The Syrian protesters demand was for democratic reforms.
  • End of July 2011, the Free Syrian Army was formed “to bring this regime down”.
  • By July 2012, the International Committee of the Red Cross declared the
  • Syrian Conflict – a “Civil War”.
  • By September 2012, the US was illegally supplying arms to the rebels.
  • Religious Distribution

    Shia Sunni Distribution

    In 2013 – Hezbollah (Shiite) entered the war in support of Syrian Army.

  • Other Nations support the Syrian government – Russia (Large Mediterranean naval base) and Iran (Shiite).

Arms Supplied to Rebels and death toll

  • Arms to the rebels supplied by Turkey (Sunni), US (Benghazi gun running), Qatar (Sunni) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni leadership and Shiite population);
  • Arms to the Government supplied by Russia and Iran (Shiite);
  • Support for the Rebels – - – -Announced support that is ready and waiting from the US, UK and Other Arabian States.
  • Death Toll in Syria to date -120,000 by December 2013, tens of thousands imprisoned and tortured – reported by Wikipedia but do not know if this is true or not true.

UN Position on the Fighting

In 2012, the UN called Syria “overly sectarian in nature” fighting where Alawite
government forces aligned with Shiite militias fighting against Sunni dominated
rebel groups. What does this mean?

  • Syria is a mixture of Alawite (a Shiite religious sect) and some Sunni’s.
  • Current Leadership of nations: Iran (Shiite); Saudi Arabia Leadership is Sunni with a Shiite population – kingship equals dictatorship; Syria (Alawite – Shiite); Turkey (Sunni)

Sunni and Shia match no borders

  •  King Assad since the beginning of the conflict has denied Sunnis the right to vote and has ushered them out of the country. They got the message and left.
  • The ISIS is a Sunni extremist organization that grew up in Syria. It is noted for its evil cruelty and its doctrinaire enforcement of religious Sharia law. It beheads enemies (Shiite) and cuts off hands.

Thus, we have Sunnis supported by Saudi Arabia and the US vs Shiites supported by Russia and Iran. Two different Arab tribes who are Muslim but  believe that their form of Islam is superior to the other side.

Summary

In summary, this is truly a tribal warfare Civil War. It is not “Secular”. It is “Religious
and Tribal”. Since the war began, Syria has ethnically cleansed its population. 3
million people have left the country. Alawite and Shia make up most of the population
now

Baghdad Threatened

ISIS Advance

.

It now appears as if the Sunnis were losing and the ISIS decided to “do their own
thing” and move on Iraq. Iraq is a mixture of Sunni and Shiite tribes. The British
government in 1917 forced artificial national boundaries that favored British Petroleum
and the oil companies and not the ethnicity or desires of the tribes. These borders
made no sense and are now falling apart. In my opinion, it is not in our best interest to
try to maintain these old borders.

Before we invaded, the Iraq leadership was Sunni with Saddam Hussein at its head. He
was a dictator who was unfair and harsh on the Shiite population. Our military threw him
out and he was replaced with Malaki, a Shiite “democratically” elected dictator. He has
been harsh and unfair on the Sunni population. Now they are rebelling and fleeing to
the ISIS where they believe they will be treated more fairly.

The Result is that we have the ISIS (Sunni) marching on Baghdad and taking over
town after town without a fight. Why? These towns were principally Sunni. These ISIS
were their Sunni tribesmen. They had stronger loyalty to their tribesmen than to their
new nation of Iraq. If the US had presence there for 50 years as in Germany and Japan
after WWII, it might have worked – - – but we did not and it did work.

Reports on the internet are that the AI Qaeda leadership cautioned the ISIS
leadership about their cruelty in Syria because the Al Qaeda would lose their
following. As a result, the ISIS for the most part left Syria and started marching on Iraq
- determined “to do their own thing.”

ISIS

The ISIS clan characteristics are:

  • Extremist Sunni sect that requires
  • Sharia law imposed – women imposed upon
  • Extreme cruelty that differentiates them from moderate Sunnis. Things such as Cutting off heads or cutting off other body parts.
  • Progress to date
    • The ISIS took over Sunni majority cities in Western Iraq
    • Seized the Shia Army arms as they joined the Sunni forces. The US supplied 100% of those arms to the Iraqi Shiite Army.
    • Seized banks, stole the money and started paying their “volunteer” Army.
  • Further likely ISIS Progress in the future
    •  It is likely they will stop in the Western part of Iraq that has oil and is mostly Sunni where they could make another nation state.
    • The Kurds win most of the battles against the Sunni and the Shiite so they will not take this tribe on in battle. The Kurds are hardened by their fights with the Turks.
  • Most likely outcome – if left alone – which means the US stays out
  • Syria remains a state – Alawite tribe
  • Irag remains a state – Mixture of Sunni and Shiite tribes with Shiite in the Majority
  • New Sunni state in the West of Iraq – created by the ISIS
  • Iran (Shiite) will have control of Iraq because of their Shiite influence
  • Turkey will make peace with Kurds because of the Kurdish oil
  • Kurds will become a state because they have oil, which is now being sold to Israel and thus will have resources and support from Turkey.

However, if the US enters the situation with more arms, it will become more unstable.

  • The US today stated that they would support the Sunni rebels in Syria, which means the ISIS as well. It is from Syria that ISIS got its weapons.
  • The ISIS Sunnis are already using US arms seized from the Sunnis in the takeover of the Iraqi Army in Western Iraq. The Sunni Iraqi forces that  become ISIS take their arms with them. They do not like Shiite Iraq  leadership.
  • The US move to support rebels would strengthen the ISIS since the Sunnis are already joining them because they are winning and have spoils of war – -the “volunteers” are now paid.

Conclusions

This whole mess is like a scene from “Lawrence of Arabia” and the US is the loser. If
we supply further weapons into this chaotic melee, we will make it worse. For instance,
we currently supply advisers to the Iraqi government that has a Shiite Dictator with
Sunnis in the population becoming very angry. Now we want to supply arms to the
Syrian Rebels that are Sunni to be used against a Shiite government. Meanwhile, the
Sunni ISIS are at the gate of Baghdad – - — As a result, we will be supplying arms and
advice to BOTH sides of this civil war.

Meanwhile, the press is not reporting any of the above and are using shadow terms
such a “sectarian” warfare. Nonsense, this is religious tribal warfare.

It now appears as if the real winner will be Iran. We displaced their mortal enemy,
Saddam Hussein (Sunni) and replaced him with Maliki (Shiite) who is cooperative
and show persecutes the Sunni. Second, they will be “owed:” favors by King Assad
for supporting him with arms and people in his Civil War to eliminate the Sunnis.
Iran will then have two states friendly to Iran.

As of today, we have the Obama White House de-facto feeding another war in the
Mideast. Given time, this will escalate and we will have more “boots on the ground”.
This will escalate our Mideast casualty list from its current 8,500 casualties (the 4,235 is
the government’s cover up list) as well as the 32,000 wounded lists.

In my view, this is an insane move by a narcissistic President or a deliberate move to
escalate the war in the Mideast. You choose. You now have the facts. Make your own
judgment. In either case, it is not good for the American taxpayers.

Copyright © Raven Communications 2014 All rights reserved



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About Joe Hawranek

Raised in Virginia and Pennsylvania. Went to VMI.and U.VA, then went into Air Force on Minuteman Launch team at Cape Canaveral. Returned to school for Ph.D. in Economics at Wharton. Spent 40 years in developing and bringing products to market. When I retired, I decided to use my knowledge of IT, marketing, economics and business and work in on line marketing to help others make money from their own business.

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